Model selection

Score, and cross-validated scores

As we have seen, every estimator exposes a score method that can judge the quality of the fit (or the prediction) on new data. Bigger is better.

>>> from sklearn import datasets, svm
>>> digits = datasets.load_digits()
>>> X_digits = digits.data
>>> y_digits = digits.target
>>> svc = svm.SVC(C=1, kernel='linear')
>>> svc.fit(X_digits[:-100], y_digits[:-100]).score(X_digits[-100:], y_digits[-100:])
0.97999999999999998

To get a better measure of prediction accuracy (which we can use as a proxy for goodness of fit of the model), we can successively split the data in folds that we use for training and testing:

>>> import numpy as np
>>> X_folds = np.array_split(X_digits, 3)
>>> y_folds = np.array_split(y_digits, 3)
>>> scores = list()
>>> for k in range(3):
...     # We use 'list' to copy, in order to 'pop' later on
...     X_train = list(X_folds)
...     X_test  = X_train.pop(k)
...     X_train = np.concatenate(X_train)
...     y_train = list(y_folds)
...     y_test  = y_train.pop(k)
...     y_train = np.concatenate(y_train)
...     scores.append(svc.fit(X_train, y_train).score(X_test, y_test))
>>> print(scores)
[0.93489148580968284, 0.95659432387312182, 0.93989983305509184]

This is called a KFold cross-validation.

Cross-validation generators

Scikit-learn has a collection of classes which can be used to generate lists of train/test indices for popular cross-validation strategies.

They expose a split method which accepts the input dataset to be split and yields the train/test set indices for each iteration of the chosen cross-validation strategy.

This example shows an example usage of the split method.

>>> from sklearn.model_selection import KFold, cross_val_score
>>> X = ["a", "a", "b", "c", "c", "c"]
>>> k_fold = KFold(n_splits=3)
>>> for train_indices, test_indices in k_fold.split(X):
...      print('Train: %s | test: %s' % (train_indices, test_indices))
Train: [2 3 4 5] | test: [0 1]
Train: [0 1 4 5] | test: [2 3]
Train: [0 1 2 3] | test: [4 5]

The cross-validation can then be performed easily:

>>> kfold = KFold(n_splits=3)
>>> [svc.fit(X_digits[train], y_digits[train]).score(X_digits[test], y_digits[test])
...          for train, test in k_fold.split(X_digits)]
[0.93489148580968284, 0.95659432387312182, 0.93989983305509184]

The cross-validation score can be directly calculated using the cross_val_score helper. Given an estimator, the cross-validation object and the input dataset, the cross_val_score splits the data repeatedly into a training and a testing set, trains the estimator using the training set and computes the scores based on the testing set for each iteration of cross-validation.

By default the estimator?s score method is used to compute the individual scores.

Refer the metrics module to learn more on the available scoring methods.

>>> cross_val_score(svc, X_digits, y_digits, cv=k_fold, n_jobs=-1)
array([ 0.93489149,  0.95659432,  0.93989983])

n_jobs=-1 means that the computation will be dispatched on all the CPUs of the computer.

Alternatively, the scoring argument can be provided to specify an alternative scoring method.

>>> cross_val_score(svc, X_digits, y_digits, cv=k_fold,
...                 scoring='precision_macro')
array([ 0.93969761,  0.95911415,  0.94041254])

Cross-validation generators

Exercise

On the digits dataset, plot the cross-validation score of a SVC estimator with an linear kernel as a function of parameter C (use a logarithmic grid of points, from 1 to 10).

import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score
from sklearn import datasets, svm

digits = datasets.load_digits()
X = digits.data
y = digits.target

svc = svm.SVC(kernel='linear')
C_s = np.logspace(-10, 0, 10)

Solution: Cross-validation on Digits Dataset Exercise

Grid-search and cross-validated estimators

Grid-search

scikit-learn provides an object that, given data, computes the score during the fit of an estimator on a parameter grid and chooses the parameters to maximize the cross-validation score. This object takes an estimator during the construction and exposes an estimator API:

>>> from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV, cross_val_score
>>> Cs = np.logspace(-6, -1, 10)
>>> clf = GridSearchCV(estimator=svc, param_grid=dict(C=Cs),
...                    n_jobs=-1)
>>> clf.fit(X_digits[:1000], y_digits[:1000])        
GridSearchCV(cv=None,...
>>> clf.best_score_                                  
0.925...
>>> clf.best_estimator_.C                            
0.0077...

>>> # Prediction performance on test set is not as good as on train set
>>> clf.score(X_digits[1000:], y_digits[1000:])      
0.943...

By default, the GridSearchCV uses a 3-fold cross-validation. However, if it detects that a classifier is passed, rather than a regressor, it uses a stratified 3-fold.

>>> cross_val_score(clf, X_digits, y_digits)
...                                               
array([ 0.938...,  0.963...,  0.944...])

Cross-validated estimators

Cross-validation to set a parameter can be done more efficiently on an algorithm-by-algorithm basis. This is why, for certain estimators, scikit-learn exposes Cross-validation: evaluating estimator performance estimators that set their parameter automatically by cross-validation:

>>> from sklearn import linear_model, datasets
>>> lasso = linear_model.LassoCV()
>>> diabetes = datasets.load_diabetes()
>>> X_diabetes = diabetes.data
>>> y_diabetes = diabetes.target
>>> lasso.fit(X_diabetes, y_diabetes)
LassoCV(alphas=None, copy_X=True, cv=None, eps=0.001, fit_intercept=True,
    max_iter=1000, n_alphas=100, n_jobs=1, normalize=False, positive=False,
    precompute='auto', random_state=None, selection='cyclic', tol=0.0001,
    verbose=False)
>>> # The estimator chose automatically its lambda:
>>> lasso.alpha_ 
0.01229...

These estimators are called similarly to their counterparts, with ?CV? appended to their name.

from sklearn import datasets
from sklearn.linear_model import LassoCV
from sklearn.linear_model import Lasso
from sklearn.model_selection import KFold
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score

diabetes = datasets.load_diabetes()